Are my eyes really blue?

It's the Atwater offense. Just remember 1988 and you'll know how it's going to go. By those lights, Palin makes much more sense: her job isn't to win over disaffected Hillary voters or persuadable moderates, it's to light a fire under the base and keep them at a steady froth and hope that turnout is enough to make up the difference. That's what Quayle ended up doing, and that seems to have worked out OK at the time.

It might be enough. Then again, it might not. Problem is, you don't know how many of the Perot 19% will eventually walk back to the GOP and how many will stick with the Ds over the economic issues. In years past I would say that the Perot vote is almost 2-to-1 Republican, but given the changes in economic positions over the last 16 years, I think that independent fiscal conservatives who are ambivalent at best about the social stuff will break hard for the Democrats this time.

Too close to call at this point. I wouldn't put too much faith in polls until the end of September or so, and even then...grain of salt. Nobody knows what the ground game will produce, especially if it all turns on get-out-the-vote.

By the way, the night of a convention speech is a SUCKTASTIC time to be setting up an over-the-air antenna for your TV.